New Study: Due Dates are Really a Guesstimate
That due date they give you at your first prenatal visit, then maybe confirm with your first ultrasound? Very not so accurate, it turns out.
In our single birthing class they told us to think of it as a â€śdue month,â€ť but a new study says that itâ€™s actually a â€śdue five weeks.â€ť
Only about 4 percent of women give birth on their due datesâ€”this, we knew. But by measuring the hormone levels of urine from 125 women trying to get pregnant in the 1980s (this study was an evaluation of older research), they were able to say exactly when pregnancy began. And they found, excluding preemies, that thereâ€™s a natural variation from 38 to 43 weeks after the first day of the womanâ€™s last menstrual period.
Interesting, but not shocking, news. But hopefully this study and perhaps others like it will start drilling home to some docs that induction can often wait. My doc, who is pretty low intervention, recommends induction at 40 weeks, highly encourages it at 41, and requires it at 42. Itâ€™s thought that the placenta may begin to degrade around this timeâ€”and also, amniotic fluid may begin to leak, compromising babyâ€™s safety. But it all also may be absolutely fine, with baby needing that full cooking time. Her practice does lots of scans during that â€śextraâ€ť time to make sure everything is cool if the patient doesnâ€™t want to induce.
Actually disturbing is that many docs encourage induction at 36, 37, or 38 weeks (in perfectly healthy pregnancies) because they believe this will mean smaller babies who are easier to deliver. But as theÂ March of Dimesâ€™ â€ś39 Weeksâ€ťÂ campaignÂ points out, induction too early can compromise essential brain development and may lead to developmental disorders and other health problems later on. Induction drugs can also lead to a cascade of further intervention, and is one of the reasons our country has such a high C-section rate (33 percent)â€”induction doubles the chance that youâ€™ll have one.
The bottom line, if your doc wants to induce because youâ€™re â€śpastâ€ť your â€śdue dateâ€ť (or even well before), ask questions:
â€“Â Â Â Â Â Â Why do you recommend this?
â€“Â Â Â Â Â Â What are the potential risks?
â€“Â Â Â Â Â Â What if youâ€™re inducing at 37 weeks for convenience and it turns out my baby needed the full 40 or more? What are the potential consequences of that?
â€“Â Â Â Â Â Â Can some simple diagnostic tests (sonogram, etc.) replace or stave off your desire to induce?
Here are some great facts and more info from March of Dimes on why itâ€™s ideal to wait, as long as there are no health threats present.
Valerie Reiss is the Managing Editor of Mom365.